Normalcy bias is the tendency to underestimate the likelihood or impact of a negative event. Normalcy bias prevents us from understanding the possibility or the seriousness of a crisis or a natural disaster.

Because normalcy bias can lead us to believe that nothing serious is going to happen, we may not make appropriate or adequate preparations for a crisis and might put ourselves at risk.

What is normalcy bias?

Normalcy bias (or normality bias) is a cognitive bias that occurs in times of crisis, leading us to disregard any signs or warnings that we are in danger. Even when we are advised on what to do, we may downplay the possibility of something bad happening to us or disregard how disruptive a disaster might actually be. As a result, we often fail to take preventive measures or cope with the situation effectively.

Under normalcy bias, people exhibit denial or disbelief, even in the face of imminent danger. Phrases like “that won’t happen here” or “it won’t be that bad” are signs of normalcy bias. Although we may think that people will start running in response to danger (as they would in the movies), in reality, people may react with a delay—or not react at all. Normalcy bias is a defense mechanism that lulls us into thinking life will just continue as it always has.

What causes normalcy bias?

Normalcy bias is a complex phenomenon that occurs as a result of several different factors.

• Attachment to current beliefs
• Need for information
• Social influence
• Resistance to change

Attachment to current beliefs

Crisis communication sometimes requires people to do something that seems counterintuitive, such as evacuating their homes even when the weather seems fine. Changing our beliefs during an emergency may be difficult due to confirmation bias: we tend to interpret ambiguous messages in a way consistent with our beliefs. For example, experts may advise us to evacuate unsafe locations and take shelter in stronger buildings, but if we are convinced that our house is a safe place, we can easily misinterpret the recommendation and stay put.

Need for information

The delay associated with normalcy bias is often disguised as a need for more information. This makes sense because when people are not well informed about a potential danger, they cannot fully understand the consequences. However, even when a clear warning has been issued, people often stall, trying to confirm the warning and relay it to others (this phenomenon is called “milling” in psychology). People in emergency situations usually ask four people on average what’s going on and what they should do prior to taking any action.

Social influence

People turn to others for cues about what is considered appropriate behavior or the right response in a situation. If others around us are not taking potential risks seriously, we are likely to follow their example. Nobody wants to be perceived as alarmist or overreactive if it turns out to be a false alarm. In other words, conformity bias may reinforce normalcy bias.

Resistance to change

Threats represent a change in our environment. Our natural tendency is to resist change and to believe that life will continue as it is. This resistance is a normal response and can occur even during the initial phase of stressful events. We become so accustomed to our everyday normal life that we are optimistic that things will continue as they are. This makes it hard for us to register and deal with impending disasters.

Why does normalcy bias matter?

Normalcy bias can prove dangerous because it prevents us from preparing for a threat, like a tsunami. On a wider scale, normalcy bias can lead to government failure to prepare for an impending disaster, at the cost of human lives.

Under normalcy bias, people find it hard to cope with a disaster as it unfolds, especially if they have never experienced a catastrophic event before. This may cause them to disregard official information, interpret any warning signs in an optimistic way, and insist that things are not as bad as they look.

Normalcy bias example

Normalcy bias can help explain why people fail to change their behavior during a crisis, even though they are instructed on what to do.

Although governments usually worry that people will panic during a crisis, research has shown that people tend to do the opposite: they carry on as though nothing new is happening.